Exit polls show Democrats have an eight-point lead in the early balloting in North Carolina.
It is a small sample, but this is why Republicans are freaking in North Carolina and nationally:
Democrats always expect to do better in the early vote.
Republicans expect to do better in terms of votes cast on election day,
but even given that, this eight-point margin for the
Democrats is really good. According to the Associated Press, Republicans
were leading in early voting at this point in the race four years ago, not
Democrats. They had a 43%-38% lead on early ballots at this point in
Mitt Romney went on to win North Carolina in 2012.
If Donald Trump loses North Carolina, he loses the election. It
doesn’t matter what happens in Ohio or Florida or any of the other swing
states. If Clinton flips a red state and maintains her “blue wall,” she
will win the election.
When one digs down in almost every poll, they can see problems for
Donald Trump. Trump is running at levels that are lower than both Mitt
Romney and John McCain with key Republican constituencies.
There is a lot of hype building in the media for the upcoming
presidential debate. The corporate press has a financial interest in
making the election seem close to portray the debate as a make or break
The North Carolina data is a reminder that while there is much more
work for Democrats to do, Hillary Clinton is in a very good position.
This election won’t be on the debate stage. The next president will
be determined by the campaign that can get their voters mobilized, and
the early data from North Carolina suggests that the Democrats’ superior
ground game is paying dividends.